The Water-Energy-Food Nexus in Madagascar: Interdependencies, Cascading Failures, and an Integrated Governance Framework

Abstract

Madagascar's concurrent crises of energy poverty (33.7% electrification), acute food insecurity (1.63 million people Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Phase 3+ in 2024), and watershed degradation (4.85 million hectares of forest lost since 2000) are structurally interdependent, yet are governed in institutional silos with no cross-sectoral coordination mechanism. This paper maps the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus dynamics of Madagascar, tests the hypothesis that institutional fragmentation  not physical resource scarcity is the binding constraint on nexus performance, and proposes an evidence-based integrated governance framework. A sequential mixed-methods design integrates systematic secondary data synthesis with qualitative institutional analysis following governance audit framework and the FAO three-systems nexus model. Five quantified nexus feedback loops are identified, the most critical being a biomass-deforestation-hydropower cascade that simultaneously impairs energy supply, watershed function, and food system productivity. Despite the per capita renewable freshwater endowments of ~12,000 m³/year due to climatic heterogeneity this resource is distributed unevenly across the country, which is double the Sub-Saharan African average only 14% of the population accesses safely managed water, and 85% of primary energy derives from biomass. A 96% agricultural water withdrawal share, 47% child stunting rate, and projected temperature increases of 3–5 °C by 2100 compound these structural deficits. Madagascar's nexus failures are governance failures. To address the identified governance and resource management challenges, this study proposes three high-leverage policy measures. First, establish a National Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus Coordination Secretariat to strengthen a cross sectorial coordination and policy coherence. Second, implement nexus-aware investment screening anchored in the 2024 ECA-WFP geospatial initiative to ensure that public and private investments account for WEF interdependencies. Third, expand off-grid renewable energy like solar deployment linked to productive agricultural use requirements to improve energy access while enhancing agricultural productivity and water-use efficiency .