The impact of climate change on natural ecosystems and the response options for nature conservation
Abstract
The paper presented here was originally prepared as a background study for the National Climate Change Strategy of Hungary, with the aim of giving a comprehensive picture on the problems Hungarian nature conservation is about to face in a world of changing climate. By summarizing potential impact mechanisms and the pitfalls of predictions, it provides a broad overview on observed and expected changes worldwide with particular emphasis on Hungary. However, the main message of the paper is the detailed overview of the immense tasks ahead of nature conservation, including research, institutional development, and practical actions.
References
Ahas, R„ Aasa, A., Menzel, A., Fedotova,V. G. & Scheifinger, H. (2002): Changes in European spring phenology. - Int. J. Climatol. 22:1727—1738.
Araujo, M. B., Cabeza, M., Thuiller, W., Hannah, H. & Williams, P. H. (2004): Would climate change drive species out of reserves? An assessment of existing reserve-selection methods. - Global Change Biology 10: 1618—1626.
Araujo, M. B., Pearson, R. G., Thuiller, W. & Erhard, M. (2005): Validation of species-climate impact models under climate change. - Global Change Biology 11: 1504-1513.
Araujo, M. B. & Rahbek, C. (2006): How does climate change affect biodiversity? - Science 313: 1396-1397.
Bartholy, J., Pongrácz, R. & Gelybó, Gy. (2007): Regional climate change expected in Hungary for 2071—2100. — Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 5:1-17.
Bazzaz, F. A. (1998): Plants in changing environments. Linking physiological, population and community ecology. - Cambridge University Press.
Beerling, D. J. & Kelly, C. K. (1997): Stomatal density responses of temperate woodland plants over the past seven decades of C 02 increase: A comparison of Salisbury 1927: with contemporary data. - Am. J. Bot. 84: 1572-1583.
Briffa, K. R., Schweingruber, F. H., Jones, P. D., Osborn, T. J., Harris, 1. C , Shiyatov, S. G., Vaganov, E. A. & Grudd, H. (1998): Trees tell of past climates: but are they speaking less clearly today? - Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. B-Biol. Sei. 353: 65-73.
Cain, M. L., Milligan, B. G. & Strand, A. E. (2000): Long-distance seed dispersal in plant populations. - Am. J. Bot. 87: 1217-1227.
Cain, M. L., Nathan, R. & Levin, S. A. (2003): Long-distance dispersal. - Ecology 84: 1943-1944.
Cannell, M. G. R., Thornley, J. H. M., Mobbs, D. C. & Friend, A. D. (1998): UK conifer forests may be growing faster in response to increased N deposition, atmospheric C02 and temperature. - Forestry 71: I'll-296.
CBD (2006): Guidance for Promoting Synergy Among Activities Addressing Biological Diversity, Desertification, Land Degradation and Climate Change. Montreal - Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity Technical Series No.25. IV+43 pages.
Ciais, Ph., Reichstein, M., Viovy, N., Gramier, A., Ogee, J., Allard, V., Aubinet, M., Buchmann, N., Bemhofer, Chr., Carrara, A., Chevallier, F., De Noblet, N., Friend, A. D., Friedlingstein, P., Grünwald, T., Heinesch, B., Keronen, P., Knohl, A., Krinner, G., Loustau, D., Manca, G., Matteucci, G., Miglietta, F., Ourcival, J. M., Papale, D., Pilegaard, K., Rambal, S., Seufert, G., Soussana, J. F., Sanz, M. J., Schulze, E. D., Vesala, T. & Valentini, R. (2005): Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003. - Nature 437: 529-533.
Collingham.Y. C. & Huntley, B. (2000): Impacts of habitat fragmentation and patch size upon migration rates. -Ecol. Appl. 10: 131-144.
Costanza, R., d'Arge, R., de Groot, R., Färber, S., Grasso, M., Hannon, B., Limburg, K., Naeem, S., O'Neill, R. V., Paruelo, J., Raskin, R. G., Sutton, P. & van den Belt, M. (1997): The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital. - Nature 387: 253-260.
Csóka, Gy., Koltay, A. & Hirka, A. 2006: Klimatikus anomáliák hatása a magyarországi bükkösök és kocsánytalan tölgyesek egészségi állapotára. - MMT XXXI. Vándorgyűlése és az V.Erdő és Klíma Konferencia előadáskivonatok. MMT Budapest, p.61.
Cuevas, J. G. (2002): Episodic regeneration at the Nothofagus pumilio alpine timberline in Tierra del Fuego. - Chile. J. Eco . 90: 52-60.
Davies, K .F., Margules, C. R. & Lawrence, J. F. (2000): Which traits of species predict population declines in experimental forest fragments? - Ecology 81: 1450-1461.
DEFRA (2006): Working with the grain of nature - taking it forward: Volume I. Full report on progress under the England Biodiversity Strategy 2002 - 2006. - www.defra.gov.uk
De Groot, R. S., Ketner, P. & Ovaa, A. H. (1995): Selection and use of bio-indicators to assess the possible effects of climate change in Europe. - Journal o f Biogeography 22: 935-943.
Fekete, G. & Varga, Z. (szerk.) (2006): Magyarország tájainak növényzete és állatvilága. MTA Társadalomkutató Központ, Budapest, pp. 461.
Gálhidy, L., Czúcz, B. & Torre, F. (2006): Zonal forest types, climatic variables and effect of changes for Hungary. - Lesnicky casopis — Forestry Journal 52(1—2): 99-105.
Geertsema.W., Opdam, P. & Kropff, M. J. (2002): Plant strategies in agricultural landscapes: survival in spatially and temporally fragmented habitat. - Landsc. Ecol. 17: 263-279.
Grace, J. (1987): Climatic tolerance and distribution of plants. - New Phytol. 106: 113-130.
Greene, D. F.,& Johnson, E. A. (1995): Long-distance wind dispersal of tree seeds. - Can. J. Bot.-Rev. Can. Bot. 73: 1036-1045.
Grime, J. P., Bown V. K., Thompson, K. et al. (2000): The response of two contrasting limestone grasslands to simulated climate change. - Science 289: 762-765.
Hallett,T. B., Coulson, T., Pilkington, J. G., Clutton-Brock, T. H., Pemberton, J. M. & Grenfell, B. (2004): Why large-scale climate indices seem to predict ecological processes better than local weather. - Nature 430: 71-75.
Hickling, R., Roy, D. B., Hill, J. K. & Thomas, Ch. D. (2005): A northward shift of range margins in British Odonata. - Global Change Biology 11: 502-506.
Hinckley, D. & Tierney, D. E. (1991): Ecosystem responses to rapid climate change - past and future. Background paper to symposium on Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystems and Species', organized by IUCN, RIVM, US-EPA and WWF International, 2-6. Dec. 1991, Amersfoort, Hollandia
Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Hughes, L., McIntyre, S., Lindenmayer, D. B., Parmesan, C., Possingham, H. P. & Thomas, C. D. (2008): Assisted Colonization and Rapid Climate Change. Science - 321: 345-346.
Hughes, L. (2000): Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent? - Trends in Ecology and Evolution 15: 56-61.
Hunter, M. (2007): Climate Change and Moving Species: Furthering the Debate on Assisted Colonization. - Conserv. Biol. - 21: 1356-1358.
Huntley, B. & Birks, H. J. B. (1983): An atlas of past and present pollen maps for Europe: 0-13000 B.P. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
IPCC 2001: Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report - Cambridge University Press.
IPCC 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report - IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
Kalapos, T., Lellei-Kovács, E., Mojzes, A., Barabás, S. & Kovács-Láng, E. (2006): Ökoszisztéma válaszok egy klímaszimulációs ökológiai terepkísérletben a Duna-Tisza közén II. A talajlégzés és a növényi anyagcsere működésének módosulása. - VAHAVA Zárókonferencia, 2006.március 9. Poszter.
Kovács-Láng, E., Kröel-Dulay, Gy., Kertész, M., Fekete, G., Bartha, S„ Mika, J., Dobi-Wantuch, I., Rédei, T., Rajkai, K. & Hahn, I. (2000): Changes in the composition af sand grasslands along a climatic gradient in Hungary and implications for climate change. - Phytocoenologia 30: 385-407.
Kovács-Láng, E., Kröel-Dulay, Gy., Lhotsky, B. & Garadnai, J. (2002): A klímaváltozás ökológiai hatásainak vizsgálata a magyarországi homoki erdőssztyepp biomban. - In: Salamon-Albert, É.fszerk.) Magyar botanikai kutatások az ezredfordulón. - Pécsi Tud. Egy. Növénytani Tanszéke, Pécs, pp. 571-580.
Kovácsné Láng, E., Kröel-Dulay, Gy. & Rédei, T. (2005): A klímaváltozás hatása a természetközeli erdőssztyepp ökoszisztémákra. - Magyar Tudomány 7: 812-817.
Kovács-Láng, E., Kröel-Dulay, Gy., Rédei, T., Lhotsky, B. & Garadnai, J. (2006a): The effect of climate change on forest-steppe ecosystems in the Carpathian Basin. - In: Láng,I.,Faragó,T.,Iványi,Zs.(eds.): Proceedings of the International Conference on Climate Change, Impacts and responses in Central and Eastern European Countries, 5-8. november, 2005. Pécs, HAS-REC-MEW, pp.294-300.
Kovács-Láng, E., Kröel-Dulay, Gy., Garadnai, J., Barabás, S., Lhotsky, B. & Lellei-Kovács, E. (2006b): Ökoszisztéma válaszok egy klímaszimulációs ökológiai terepkisérletben a Duna-Tisza közén I. A növényzet tömegviszonyainak alakulása. - VAHAVA Zárókonferencia, 2006. március 9. Poszter.
Kozár, F.,Szentkirályi, F., Kádár, F. & Bemáth, B. (2004): Éghajlatváltozás és a rovarok. -AGRO-21 Füzetek 33: 49-64.
Kozár, F., Szentkirályi, F., Nagy, B., Kádár, F., Bernáth, B. & Szőcs, G. (2006): Klímaváltozás és a rovarok: Milyen további veszélyek várhatók? - VAHAVA Zárókonferencia, 2006. március 9. Poszter.
Kröel-Dulay, Gy., Kovács-Láng, E., Rédei, T., Garadnai, J., Lhotsky, B., Czúcz, B. & Kues, P. (2006): Aszály okozta pusztulás és regeneráció homokpusztagyepekben a Duna-Tisza közén. - VAHAVA Zárókonferencia, 2006. március 9. Poszter.
Kullman, L. (2001): 20th century climate warming and tree-limit rise in the Southern Scandes of Sweden. - Ambio 30: 72—80.
Kullman, L. (2002): Rapid recent range-margin rise of tree and shrub species in the Swedish Scandes. - J. Ecol. 90: 68-77.
Lane, D. R., Coffin, D. P. & Lauenroth, W. K. (2000): Changes in grassland canopy structure across a precipitation gradient. — Journal of Vegetation Science 11: 359-368.
Lehto, T. E. (2003): The number of Lepidoptera species new to Finland is growing. - Baptria 28: 16-22.
Lövei, G. L. (1997): Biodiversity - Global change through invasion. - Nature 388: 627-628.
McLachlan, J. S., Hellmann, J. J., & Schwartz, M. W. (2007): A framework for debate of assisted migration in an era of climate change. Conserv. Biol. - 21: 297-302.
Mátyás, Cs. (2004): A természetes növénytakaró, az erdő' klímaérzékenysége. - Természet Világa 135. évf. II. Különszám pp.70-73.
Mátyás, Cs. & Czimber, K. (2000): Zonális erdőtakaró mezoklímaszintű modellezése: lehetőségek a klímaváltozás hatásainak előrejelzésére. - In: III.Erdő és Klíma Konferencia. Debrecen, 2000.jún. 7-9. DE TTK Meteorológiai Tanszék, pp. 83-97.
Mátyás, Cs. & Czimber, K. (2002): Az előrejelzett klímaváltozás és a magyar erdőtakaró sorsa. - NYME EMK Tud. Konf. Előadások 2001: Sopron, pp. 67-74.
Menzel, A. (2000): Trends in phenological phases in Europe between 1951 and 1996. - Int. J. Biometeorol. 44: 76-81.
Menzel, A. & Fabian, P. (1999): Growing season extended in Europe. - Nature 397: 659.
Menzel, A., Jakobi, G., Ahas, R., Scheifinger, H. & Estrella, N. (2003): Variations of the climatological growing season (1951-2000) in Germany compared with other countries. - Int. J. Climatol. 23: 793-812.
MEA (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment) (2005): Ecosystems and Human Well-being: General Synthesis - www.millenniumassessment.org
Miller, C. & Urban, D. L. (1999): A model of surface fire, climate and forest pattern in the Sierra Nevada, California. - Ecol. Model 114: 113-135.
Morecroft, M. D., Masters, G. J„ Brown, K. V., Clarke, I. P., Taylor, M. E. & Whitehouse, A. T. (2004): Changing precipitation patterns alter plant community dynamics and succession in an ex—arable grassland. - Functional Ecology 18: 648-655.
Myneni, R. B., Keeling, C. D., Tucker, C. J., Asrar, G. & Nemani, R. R. (1997): Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991. - Nature 386: 698-702.
Nathan, R., Perry, G., Cronin, J. T., Strand, A. E. & Cain, M. L. (2003): Methods for estimating long-distance dispersal. - Oikos 103: 261-273.
Noss, R. F. (2001): Beyond Kyoto: Forest management in a time of rapid climate change. - Conservation Biology 15: 578-590.
Parmesan, C. (1996): Climate and species range. - Nature 382: 765-766.
Parmesan, C„ Ryrholm, N., Stefanescu, C., Hill, J. K., Thomas, C. D., Descimon, H., Huntley, B., Kaila, L., Kullberg, J., Tammaru, T., Tennent, W. J., Thomas, J. A. & Warren, M. (1999): Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming. - Nature 399: 579-583.
Parmesan, C., Root, T. & Willig, M. R. (2000): Impacts of Extreme Weather and Climate on Terrestrial Biota. - Bull.of the Am. Met.Soc. 81.3: 443-450.
Parmesan, C. & Yohe, G. (2003): A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change Impacts across natural systems. - Nature 421: 37-42.
Penuelas, J., Prieto, P., Beier, C., Cesaraccio, C., De Angelis, P., de Dato, G., Emmett, B. A., Estiarte, M., Gorissen, A., Kovács-Láng, E., Kröel-Dulay, Gy., Garadnai, J„ Llorens, L., Pellizzaro, G., Riis-Nielsen, T., Schmidt, I. K., Sirca, C., Sowerby, A., Spano, D. & Tietema, A. (2007): Response of plant species richness and primary productivity in shrublands along a north-south gradient in Europe to seven years experimental warming and drought. Reductions in primary productivity in the heat and drought year of 2003. - Global Change Biology 13: 2563-2581.
Peterson, D. L. (1994): Recent changes in the growth and establishment of subalpine conifers in western North America. - In: Beniston.M. (ed.) Mountain Environments in changing Climates. Routledge, pp. 234-243.
Peterson, T. A. (2003): Projected climate change effects on Rocky Mountain and Great Plains birds: generalities of biodiversity consequences. — Global Change Biology 9: 647—655.
Phillips, O. L., Malhi, Y., Higuchi, N., Laurance, W. F., Nunez, P. V., Vasquez, R. M., Laurance, S. G., Ferreira, L. V., Stern, M., Brown, S. & Grace, J. (1998): Changes in the carbon balance of tropical forests: Evidence from long-term plots. - Science 282: 439-442.
Pöyry, J., Toivonen, H. (2005): Climate change adaptation and biological diversity. - FINADAPT Working Paper 3. Finnish Environment Institute Mimeographs 333. Helsinki, 46 pp.
Salisbury, E. J. (1926): The geographical distribution of plants in relation to climate factors. - Geogr. J. SI: 312-335.
Scheifinger, H., Menzel, A., Koch, E., Peter, C. & Ahas, R. (2002): Atmospheric mechanisms governing the spatial and temporal variability of phenological phases in central Europe. - Int. J. Climatol. 22: 1739-1755.
Schneider, S. H. & Root, T. L. (2001): Climate Change and Ecology. - In: Levin,S.A.(ed) Encyclopedia of Biodiversity Vol 1. Academic Press, Boston, New-York, London, pp. 709-725.
Schröter, D. (2005): Vulnerability to Changes in Ecosystem Services. CID Graduate Student and Postdoctoral Fellow Working Paper No. 10. Cambridge, MA: Science, Environment and Development Group, Center for International Development, Harvard University.
Scott, D. & Lemieux, C. J. (2003): Vegetation Response to Climate Change: Implications for Canada,s Conservation Lands. — Environment Canada, Toronto, pp. 38.
Shaver, G. R„ Canadell, J., Chapin III, F. S., Gurevitch, J., Harte, J., Henry, G., Ineson, P., Jonasson, S., Melillo, J., Pitelka, L. & Rustad, L. (2000): Global warming and terrestrial ecosystems:a conceptual framework for analysis. - BioScience 50(10): 871-882.
Smith, R. I. L. 1994: Vascular plants as bioindicators of regional warming in Antarctica. - Oecologia 99: 322-328.
Solymosi, P. (1992): Meghonosodott és újabban behurcolt jövevény (adventiv) növények Magyarországon. - Növényvédelem 28: 9-20.
Stern Review (2006): The Economics of Climate Change, http://www.hm treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/stem_review_report.cfm
Sturm, M., Racine, C. & Tape, K. (2001): Climate change Increasing shrub abundance in the Arctic. - Nature 411: 546-547.
Swetnam, T. W. (1993): Fire history and climate change in giant sequoia groves. - Science 262: 885-889.
Sykes, M. T. & Haxeltine, A. (2001): Modeling the response of vegetation distribution and biodiversity to climate change. In: Chapin III.F.S., Sala.O., Huber -SannwaId,E.(eds.) Global biodiversity in a changing environment, Ecological Studies 152. Springer-Verlag, New-York, pp.5-21.
Thomas, C. D. & Lennon, J. J. (1999): Birds extend their ranges northward. - Nature 399: 213.
Thomas, C. D., Williams, S. E., Cameron, A., Green, R. E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L. J. Collingham, Y. C., Erasmus, B. F. N., de Siqueira, M. F., Grainger, A., Hannah, L., Hughes, L., Huntley, B., van Jaaarsveld, A. S. L., Midgley, G. F., Miles, L., Ortega-Huerta, M. A., Peterson, A. T., Phillips, O. L., Williams, S. E. (2004): Extinction risk from climate change. - Nature 427: 145-148.
Tilman, D. (1993): Community Diversity and Succession: The Roles of Competition, Dispersal, and Habitat Modification. — In: Schulze,E.D., Mooney,H.A. (eds) Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function, Springer, Berlin, pp. 327-344.
Tóth, J. A., Papp, M., Krakomperger, Zs. & Kotroczó, Zs. (2006): A klímaváltozás hatása egy cseres-tölgyes erdő struktúrájára (Sikfőkút Project). - VAHAVA Zárókonferencia, Poszter.
Tuba, Z. (2003): Az emelkedő légköri C02 koncentráció növényökológiai hatásai. - Agro-21 Füzetek, Klímaváltozás — Hatások — Válaszok 32: 110-127.
Usher, M. B. 2005: Conserving European Biodiversity in the context of Climate Change.
Voigt, W., Perner, J., Davis, A. J., Eggers, T., Schumacher, J., Bahrmann, R., Fabian, B., Heinrich, W., Köhler, G., Lichter, D., Marstaller, R. & Sander, F. W. (2003): Trophic levels are differently sensitive to climate. - Ecology 84: 2444-2453.
Walkovszky, A. (1998): Changes in phenology of the locust tree (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) in Hungary. - Int.J. Biometeorology 1: 155-160.
Walther, G-R., Post, E., Convey, P„ Menzel, A., Parmesan, C., Beebee, T. J. C., Fromentin, J-M.,
Hoegh-Guldberg, O. & Bairlein, F. (2002): Ecological response to recent climate change. - Nature 416: 389-395.
Watt, A. D. & McFarlane, A. M. (2002): Will climate change have a different impact on different trophic levels? Phenological development of winter moth Operopthera brumata and its host plants. - Ecological Entomology 27: 254-256.
Whittaker, R. H. (1975): Communities and Ecosytems.- 2nd ed. Macmillan, London.
Woodward, F. I. (1988): Climate and plant distribution. - Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Zebisch, M., Grothmann, T„ Schröter, D., Hasse, C., Fritsch, U. & Cramer, W. (2005): Climate Change in Germany, Vulnerability and adaptation of climate sensitive sectors. - Research report 201 41 253. UBA-FB, Potsdam
Zhou, L. M., Tucker, C. J., Kaufmann, R. K., Slayback, D., Shabanov, N. V. & Myneni, R. B. (2001): Variations in northern vegetation activity inferred from satellite data of vegetation index during 1981 to 1999 . - J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. 106: 20069-20083.
