Estimation and Analysis of the Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change on the Ráckeve (Soroksár) Danube in Hungary

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change in Hungary is already having direct and indirect effect on surface and near-surface waters by increasing the length of summer heat waves and dry periods, and by changing the amount and distribution of precipitation within the year. The Ráckeve (Soroksár) Danube branch (RSD) and its surrounding area are extremely exposed to the climatic conditions. Therefore, it is essential to determine the tendency of the changes, as well as to understand the complexity of the problems arising as a result of the effects of climate change.

Our analyses confirm that climate change can be detected in the area of the RSD in recent decades. The results of climate model simulations show that the climate vulnerability of the region may continue to increase in the future without any appropriate interventions. Climate models are the most important tool to examine future changes; they provide indispensable help in mitigating the negative effects of climate change and in developing environmental and economic strategies. Based on our examination of the extreme weather events of RSD, the escalation of the impact processes can be expected in the future. In order to quantify the climatic effects on ecologically important organisms, as well as on the quality of the water, climate indicators were produced. They provide information on the current and future climate conditions of the area of the RSD, as well as on meteorological variables, which affect the state of RSD. In order to identify the hydrological processes affecting the RSD, climate analyses were also performed for the study area including a part of the Danube catchment. Based on the determined impacts, we made suggestions for the implementation of the most important interventions.