Modal shift or intermodality? The necessity, opportunities, and limitations of modal shift in Hungary in light of the European Union’s transportation and climate policy goals
Abstract
This study aims to evaluate the role of modal shift and intermodality in achieving the European Union’s transport and climate policy objectives, with a particular focus on the competitiveness and development of rail freight transport in Hungary. The research addresses the gap between policy ambitions for sustainable transport and the persistent dominance of road freight. The methodology is based on a structured literature review and secondary data analysis, drawing on European Union policy documents, Eurostat transport statistics, and national datasets. Comparative trend analysis is applied to assess changes in modal split at both the EU and Hungarian levels, while a qualitative assessment is used to identify the key structural, economic, and technological factors influencing the competitiveness of rail and intermodal transport. The results show that despite strong policy support, the share of rail freight transport has stagnated or slightly declined across the European Union, while road transport continues to dominate. In Hungary, similar patterns are observed, with rail maintaining a stable but limited market share. The findings identify infrastructure limitations, interoperability barriers, capacity constraints, and cost disadvantages as the primary factors hindering rail competitiveness. At the same time, intermodal transport has demonstrated significant growth, indicating its potential as a more feasible pathway toward sustainable freight systems than a pure modal shift. The study concludes that achieving climate objectives in the transport sector requires integrated policy measures, targeted infrastructure investments, and the accelerated development of intermodal solutions supported by digitalisation. Strengthening rail freight and intermodality is essential for reducing emissions and enhancing Hungary’s role in European logistics networks.
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