A háborús szankciós bejelentések hatásai a nyersolajárfolyamokra
Absztrakt
A tanulmány a különböző, olajipart érintő, Oroszországot célzó szankciós bejelentések hatását vizsgálja három – a Brent-, a WTI- és az Urals-típusú – nyersolaj-portfólió azonnali árfolyamára vonatkozóan. Az orosz–ukrán háború kezdetét követő időszakot vizsgálva összefüggést keresünk a bejelentések és a piac mozgása között. Eseményelemzés módszertanával nézzük meg a piaci hatékonyságot négy kiemelt esemény időszakában (az Egyesült Államok embargója, a G7-ársapka, valamint a 6. és a 8. EU-szankciós csomag elfogadása). Azt vizsgáljuk, hogy a várakozásokhoz képest voltak-e szignifikáns eltérések a tényleges hozamokban. Az eredmények láttán kijelenthető, hogy a különböző bejelentések eltérően reagáltak: a meglepetésszerű bejelentések szignifikáns hatást váltottak ki, míg a politikai párbeszéddel megelőzött bejelentések információs tartalma már előre beépült árakba. Továbbá a háború után elváltak az Urals-típusú olajportfólió értékei a másik két vizsgált portfólió hozamainak mozgásától. A tanulmány végén a kutatás gyakorlati, szakpolitikai és elméleti eredményeit is összefoglaljuk.
Hivatkozások
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2025-01-15
Hogyan kell idézni
Kökény L., & KelemenH. (2025). A háborús szankciós bejelentések hatásai a nyersolajárfolyamokra. Közgazdasági Szemle, 72(1), 20-49. Elérés forrás https://ojs3.mtak.hu/index.php/kszemle/article/view/18134
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