Probability as an argument of decision in Keynes’ economics

Abstract

Tamás Dusek wrote an article entitled Reasons for Keynes’ success and popularity according to Keynes’ biographies in the September 2022 issue of this journal, which György Szakolczai commented on in his article entitled Notes and additions to the Keynes essay by Tamás Dusek in the May 2023 issue of this journal. The author replied with his article entitled Reply to György Szakolczai. The author of these lines wishes to comment on one of the two authors’ thoughts with the intention of add- ing to them. Tamás Dusek names two books as Keynes’ most influential works. One is The Economic Consequences of Peace (1919), the other The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936). György Szakolczai, referring to Keynes’ work on probability, says that “this work has no real significance, and I include it here for the sake of completeness”. Contrary to the authors’ assertion, I believe that Keynes’ A Treatise on Probability (1921) and his General Theory of Employment (1937) are crucial in establishing Keynes’ economic theory, which is based on the role of uncer- tainty. My article attempts to provide a nuanced picture of the importance of proba- bility and uncertainty in Keynesian economics.