AN ISLAND OF THE PASTLESSONS OF TRANSITIONS AND THE FUTURE OF CUBA

Abstract

The largest country of the Caribbean, Cuba, is an island in more than one sense. In geographic sense, the
country covers the largest island of the Antilles and several other islands. In political sense, Cuba is among
the few remaining socialist countries of the world still experimenting with central planning in the economy.
Cuba is also a time capsule. Due to central planning in the economy and also to the American embargo, the
country recalls the 1950s in many ways with its old American cars often powered by Soviet made engines
and, according to anyone’s taste, its worn or patinated buildings.
Looking at the transitions that started in the late 1980s in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union and
taking place in a fast pace on historical scale, many expected fast changes in Cuba after the collapse of the
Soviet Union. These changes, however, have not happened so far. At the same time, the contrast between the
development of Cuba and other countries of the region has been increasing and the central planning model is loosing ground everywhere else as well. In theory, China still pursues socialism but for the next hundred years they still mainly rely on capitalist methods. In North Korea, people are starving and living in extreme poverty.
Vietnam and other countries of Asia known as oriented towards socialism have either given up central
planning already or, similarly to China, have been drifting away from it silently under the cover of a one party
system. Cuba also implemented reforms after the collapse of the Soviet Union. A true transition, however, has not yet started. What lessons of past and ongoing transitions hold for Cuba? What these lessons say about the odds of a Cuban transition? How expectations of a Cuban transition evolved after the collapse of the Soviet Union? I will cover these topics on the following pages.